A calmer housing market may be on the horizon
If the last few years have felt like a roller coaster—tight inventory, bidding wars, rate shocks—you’re not alone. According to HousingWire’s coverage of Logan Mohtashami’s 2026 housing forecast, the market could look meaningfully more “normal” by 2026. Two takeaways stand out: inventory is back to normal and mortgage rates are forecast to land between about 5.75% and 6.75%. That combination points to a steadier market where decisions can be made with more confidence and less chaos.
What “inventory back to normal” means for you
When inventory normalizes, buyers typically have more choices, and sellers face more competition. This doesn’t automatically mean prices fall across the board—but it can shift the balance away from frantic “take it or leave it” conditions and toward a healthier pace where homes sit a bit longer and negotiations feel more reasonable.
In practical terms, a normalized inventory environment often brings:
- More listings to choose from, including homes that might have been withheld during uncertain times
- Fewer bidding wars (or at least fewer extreme ones), depending on local demand
- More room for negotiation on price, closing costs, or repairs—especially on properties that aren’t perfectly updated
- More realistic pricing, with sellers needing to align with comparable sales instead of “testing the market”
How the 5.75%–6.75% rate range could shape affordability
Mohtashami’s forecast range suggests a world where mortgage rates are still higher than the ultra-low era, but potentially more stable and predictable than what many households experienced recently. For homebuyers, stability matters: it’s easier to shop, budget, and lock a loan when rates aren’t swinging wildly week to week.
If rates settle in that mid-5% to mid-6% range, affordability will still depend on home prices, income, and local taxes/insurance. But for many people, the bigger shift could be psychological: a return to “normal decision-making” instead of waiting for the perfect moment that may never arrive.
If you’re buying in 2026: strategy over speed
A steadier market may reward patience and planning. With more inventory, buyers can focus on finding the right home—not just the first home they can win. You may also have more leverage to request concessions that reduce your upfront costs.
Consider these buyer-friendly moves:
- Get fully pre-approved (not just pre-qualified) so you can act confidently when you find the right fit
- Compare loan options (conventional, FHA, VA, buy-down scenarios) to match your timeline and cash reserves
- Negotiate strategically: seller credits, repair requests, or rate buy-downs may be more common in a balanced market
- Focus on monthly payment, not just price—especially with taxes and insurance continuing to matter
If you’re selling in 2026: presentation and pricing matter more
When inventory is normal, buyers have options—so sellers need to stand out. The days of “list it on Thursday, accept 15 offers by Sunday” may be less common in many areas. That doesn’t mean you can’t sell well; it just means success may depend more on strong fundamentals.
For sellers, the playbook often shifts toward:
- Pricing to the market based on recent comps, not peak-year expectations
- Making the home move-in ready with small repairs, fresh paint, and clean staging
- Offering buyer incentives when it makes sense (credits, closing cost support, or rate buy-down contributions)
- Choosing the right timing and marketing plan to maximize exposure
If you’re thinking about refinancing: watch your break-even point
For homeowners, the forecasted rate range is a reminder that refinancing in 2026 will be highly personal. If you already have a very low rate, a traditional rate-and-term refinance may not pencil out. But refinancing isn’t only about chasing the lowest rate—it can also be about changing loan terms, removing mortgage insurance, accessing equity (carefully), or consolidating debt.
Before you refinance, it helps to evaluate:
- Your current rate vs. new rate and the monthly payment difference
- Loan costs and your break-even timeline
- How long you plan to stay in the home
- Cash-flow goals (lower payment, shorter term, or more flexibility)
The bottom line
If inventory truly returns to normal and rates stabilize in the 5.75%–6.75% range, 2026 could feel less like a sprint and more like a planned purchase or sale. Buyers may gain options and negotiating power, sellers may need sharper strategy, and homeowners considering refinancing will want a clear, numbers-driven plan.
Ready to explore your options? Schedule a free consultation with our team today!